'Bumpy time' ahead for investors

Chinese year of the Rabbit forecast to be marked by volatility, turbulence

Oracles predict a bumpy ride for the Year of the Rabbit, marked by volatility and turbulence.

Like forecasts from economists, those made by feng shui masters do not always match up but this year there appears to be a common theme.

This is, after all, the nature of the rabbit: Hopping along to and fro, full of energy and vitality but occasionally lacking in courage and always sensitive to any sign of danger.

Masters say the rabbit is marked by volatility, and that is what lies ahead.

As is tradition in Hong Kong, feng shui masters put forth their interpretations of the oracles for the year that stretches ahead, the Year of the Golden Rabbit that runs from Feb 3 to Jan 22. The Year of the Rabbit follows the Year of the Tiger.

Wood-related industries like real estate, construction and building materials face a difficult time.

On the other hand, industries linked to fire such as telecoms, petrochemicals and utilities have reasonably good prospects.

Metal industries such as financials face a good year as do water industries like gambling and gaming.

Other predictions

Property prices in Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland will stay the course, but beware the speculators that are already setting up in Hong Kong.

"Every year you need to seek advice from the oracles," says feng shui master Alion Yeo Tin-ming,

who gave his interpretation of the oracles during an event organized by ABN AMRO Private Banking on Jan 19. Yeo is well known in Hong Kong for his predictions and is a regular at talk shows.

Even for him, the year ahead is difficult to forecast and the oracles difficult to read. A one-month process took three times that long.

He had difficulty getting a clear message in Hong Kong, so he traveled to Singapore to get a different perspective.

In the end, he got the message, and his forecast is not one of calm waters. Rather, he sees a difficult year, one marked by an unhealthy overabundance of money.

"We have too much money. This year we are going to have a money tsunami," he says.

Yeo foresees some major economic fluctuations. The economies of Hong Kong and the mainland will be linked together even closer.

Conflicts between China and the United States will become increasingly significant, "not war but economic conflict".

South Korea and Japan will see major fluctuations as influxes of hot money have drastic impact on those markets.

In particular, the yen could strengthen considerably to the highest levels it has seen in years but will likely adjust after that. All this is most likely to happen in the fourth quarter.

Yeo calls on the US to heed the lessons of the last financial crisis, lest another great shock bring renewed economic difficulties.

Among other things, earthquakes could shock the US.

Overall, the year is likely to be anything but smooth sailing: "There will be a number of shocks. We have to keep our fingers crossed."

The same day, just down the road, Philip Chow gave his own predictions for CLSA's Feng Shui Index. Chow is a shipping analyst at the brokerage and a feng shui master.