Here we go again - another crucial vote

In normal UK political times, if you are the ruling party, with a slender 17-seat parliamentary majority, and your lead in the opinion polls is 21 points over a demoralized and confused opposition, inevitably you'll try to capitalize on that with a snap general election aimed at increasing your parliamentary majority.

Well, here in the UK we're not living in normal political times and many are wondering why Prime Minister Theresa May, already wrestling with hammering out the negotiating position for Britain's formal exit from the European Union, chose to stun everyone with a shock general election call.

Her reasoning, as outlined in her statement on April 18, was that while the country had voted in a referendum to leave the EU, politicians in Westminster were still divided over the issue. She wants to bring unity to those in power.

Well, that may be true, but whatever gloss May puts on the decision - a complete reversal of her position as recently as September last year - the June 8 poll is likely to be treated by many as a second referendum on EU membership.

May is taking a huge political gamble, unusual for a politician who, unlike her predecessor David Cameron, has a reputation for caution.

Right now, the opposition Labour Party is seen as being torn between supporters of veteran left-winger Jeremy Corbyn and his more moderate parliamentary colleagues.

As late as last weekend, before May's announcement, polls showed 47 percent of Labour supporters didn't think he would ever become prime minister.

Corbyn himself welcomed the general election, saying it gave the country the chance of putting a government of the people in control - but he completely avoided any mention of Europe or Brexit.

Assuming continued Labour Party disarray - one opposition member of Parliament has already said he'll stand down because of continuing disagreement with Labour's leadership - May still has other Brexit issues which she feels a general election will solve.

Sitting as she does with a relatively slim 17-seat majority, many say she sees the election as dealing with the handful of rebel back-bench MPs from her own party determined to force a no-compromise deal under Brexit, known here as hard Brexit. There are also threats within the House of Lords, or upper chamber, which consists mainly of unelected or appointed members.

Well, there's a widely held belief that David Cameron saw the referendum as a way of closing down dissent on Europe within his own party. That didn't go well at all and by June last year he was out of a job, handing power to May, up until then home secretary.

Then there's the centrist Liberal Democrats, enjoying a surge in support after their near annihilation in the 2015 general election, when they went from 58 parliamentary seats and a coalition with the Conservatives to just eight seats. They are committed to staying in Europe and have pledged to fight Brexit all the way.

There is also a strong belief that a fair number of those who voted to leave in the referendum last year are now having second thoughts, after having the details of Brexit laid out.

Technically, a British vote could still mean the Brexit process being stopped - there are a number of German politicos and businessmen who would welcome that - but, to be honest, it's a brave punter who commits his money either way on the outcome of the June 8 vote.

Here we go again...

The author is managing editor, Europe for China Daily. Contact him on chris@mail.chinadailyuk.com

(China Daily European Weekly 04/21/2017 page11)