Robots that destroy jobs could also become job creators

All those afraid of robots taking away our jobs may be interested to note that robots do not always work forever and in fact, like humans, retire from their jobs too - as did AlphaGo, the Google-made artificial intelligence machine that recently beat the human world champion of the board game Go for the third time.

It might be worthwhile to realize that the current picture of employment, the 20-40-20 rule - meaning 20 years of education, 40 years of work and 20 years of retirement - is a relatively recent phenomenon. Even now this 20-40-20 situation does not apply to most developing countries and even some developed European nations where youth unemployment is higher than 20 percent despite a predominantly educated workforce.

Until the advent of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century most work in the world was "casual' in nature. Farmers tilled the land according to seasons and harvests and hoped to save enough to tide them over for the rest of the year. Even "standing" full-time armies were only invented around this time; before that the Lord of the Land just rounded up the poor peasants to put them in harm's way when he felt like conquering the neighboring realm, or needed help to defend his own kingdom.

It was Germany's "Iron Chancellor" Otto von Bismarck who invented social security and health insurance for the masses in the 19th century. Laggard and very feudal Britain did not really follow up until after World War II. It was only in the 20th century that Henry Ford realized it may be a good idea to pay his workers more so they could afford to buy the cars he was producing.

In mid-20th century, when US automobile workers were driving cars to work, most South Korean automobile workers could not afford to buy the cars they were producing. People in developing countries may bemoan the advent of the "gig economy" now but most of the world has always been a "gig economy" for people in the "informal" sector.

This means even before the advent of robots, most people did not have "regular" jobs! Since the world managed to survive with most of the people not having regular jobs historically for such a long time, the world very likely will continue to survive robot-caused unemployment. Whether in fact robots will cause wide-spread unemployment with no new options opening remains to be seen. There are certainly reasons to be at least partially optimistic.

The advent of money-spitting ATMs was expected to be the death knell of bank tellers. But in fact, there are more bank tellers employed in the United States now than there were in the 1970s when the ATMs started making a widespread appearance! The reasons for this are simple. With reams of documents and steel safes being replaced by computers and ATMs, bank branches could be made smaller and more of them could be opened in strategic places. So "bank robots" ended up creating more jobs for bank tellers. This scenario may not be repeated in all industries but there is a possibility that it may happen in at least some industries.

When I was younger all women, even rich ones, did their own nails and I don't remember seeing any nail bars, which seem to be ubiquitous now in all major cities. The Hong Kong of the 1980s did not even have a fraction of the foot reflexology joints it now has. What people used to do themselves - whether cooking dinner, washing hair or manicuring their nails - other people seem to be doing them now, and often doing it better! Tattoos used to be unseemly and were only seen on the bodies of mystics and gangsters, whereas most young girls now seem to be getting them in tattoo parlors. Society has a self-rejuvenating way of inventing and consuming new "needs" as it evolves and creating new jobs to cater for such needs. I can already spot the new trend as I see some men getting face shaves in hipper parts of Central in Hong Kong.

And why is it that we see only shiny, new robots working perfectly? Robots are machines and like all machines will require technicians and mechanics to maintain them, service and, yes, repair them too. So rather than seeing them as a threat to jobs, I can foresee a whole new industry of robot mechanics and service stations springing up soon.

When robots start performing surgery, more surgery will be done and at a shorter notice. A respected journalist friend of mine in Hong Kong had to wait more than a year for some knee surgery; if robots were in charge it would be done with no waiting period.

So please collect your golden watch after 40 years' service and stop worrying about your grandchildren having to beg for small change from passing robots in Central.

(HK Edition 06/05/2017 page9)