Russia's Putin drops clues to future goals

Ukraine conflict

The relations between Russia and neighboring Ukraine touched bottom at the end of 2018 when Russia seized three Ukrainian naval ships in waters near Crimea.

Moscow and Kiev blamed each other for the incident. Crimea was incorporated into Russia in March 2014 following a local referendum. Ukraine said the peninsula was annexed.

The Ukrainian Navy said it had informed Russia in advance about the passage of its vessels from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait, and the boats were rammed and disabled as they tried to leave the area.

However, the Public Relations Center of the Russian Federal Security service confirmed the incident, saying Russia used weapons against the Ukrainian ships that it claims had illegally entered its waters before being boarded and searched.

"There are many uncertainties about how Russia's relationship with Ukraine will unfold (this year)," said Andrew Wilson, a professor of Ukrainian Studies at University College London and senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Wilson said the key event to look out for is Ukraine's presidential election in March. But he doesn't think a pro-Russia candidate will win, as "that's not how Ukrainian politics works anymore".

"But parliamentary elections in October are a different matter, because it is entirely possible that certain Russian-backed parties could come to power," Wilson said in an interview with the Moscow Times.

But now some experts think Turkey is joining the game.

The country is keen on playing mediation to ease tensions, fearing a full-scale war in the Black Sea would jeopardize its own interests in the region.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has offered his country's mediation to ease tensions. "Here we could take on a mediator role and we have discussed this with both sides," Erdogan told reporters in December in Istanbul.

Togrul Ismail, a professor of international relations at Kahramanmaras University in Turkey, said, "Both Russia and Ukraine are in need of the mediation role that Turkey can play as Turkey is offering to ease the situation between the two nations.