Graying US faces major population shift

Immigration 'necessary' to help counter expected burden on social security system

Editor's note: Countries and regions worldwide are facing challenges posed by aging populations. This is part of a series in which China Daily looks at the global issue.

The graying of the United States is about to hit a tipping point.

According to a recent report from the US Census Bureau, 2030 will be an important demographic turning point in US history－every baby boomer will be over 65 years old.

The number of US citizens over 65 is projected to reach 78 million, surpassing the projected number of people under 18－76.7 million－for the first time.

The demographic shift has many implications, said Jon Taylor, a professor of political science at the University of St. Thomas in Houston, Texas.

"The US Social Security system was founded in the 1930s when there were essentially 17 to 18 workers for each retiree. Today it's down to three to four workers for every retiree. In the next 20 years it will be down to two to three workers for each retiree," Taylor said.

"That is unsustainable based on our current economy and system. It's also a burden placed on younger people."

A declining economy and a rising tax rate to cover the high number of older people make it necessary for the US to continue to encourage immigration for the purpose of growing the population, including the younger population, Taylor said.

He warned that as the trend of an aging population continues, over time it can lead to serious political consequences, political instability and generational resentment.

"Who knows what kind of blowback might occur as a result of demographic change ... it will become a political battle," Taylor said.

In San Francisco, for example, the child population－those below 18 years－is 8 percent, the lowest in the US.

"A country with a smaller percentage of children will be less interested in education, it will be hard for universities to be able to attract high school students. If we see that continue, we will see a ripple effect on education, the workplace, employment in general, and a great reliance on robots," Taylor said.

"This will impact on how the world will work in the future."

Along with aging, the racial makeup of the US population is in for some major shifts as well, according to the Census Bureau report.

The non-Hispanic white (NHW) population is projected to decline even as the US population is projected to grow. The fastest-growing group will be mixed races, followed by Asians, primarily from immigration, and Hispanics, primarily from higher birth rates.

Steve Murdock, a sociology professor at Rice University, pointed out that there is a big difference in socioeconomic resources between NHWs and Hispanics, two of the largest groups in the US.

"The population groups that are growing as fast as they can are some of the poorest," Murdock said. "We have to ensure that those population groups have the education and skills they need to be competitive or we could have a problem supporting the elders," he said.

"It's not only critical for them but also for the United States as a country."

The key to socioeconomic progress is education, Murdock said.

As an immigration nation, the US has a higher-education system that provides ample opportunities for anyone who is willing to put in the effort. The second-generation immigrants have always fared better than their parents historically, and that will continue to make the US competitive, he said.

"The aging population will increase demand for medical care and long-term care. Certainly there will be strains and stress in some places in the system more than others," Murdock said, "but the US is continuing to be competitive overall. We will take care of our elderly. It's a challenge but we are able to take care of it."