Silver lining seen despite market rout

Hong Kong stocks tumbled by more than 400 points during intraday trading on Wednesday, triggered by the market's nervousness over tensions in the Middle East after Iran fired ballistic missiles at US troops bases in Iraq.

The Hang Seng Index sank 0.83 percent, or 234.14 points, to close at 28,087.92 points.

However, investment pundits said there could still be a silver lining.

It would probably have some downside volatility at this point of time, but it's an unlikely scenario that the tension would trigger a recession, reckoned Kathleen Anderson, client portfolio manager of ClearBridge Investments.

"This is more of a slowdown relative to a recession," she said, adding that the short-term risks could provide favorable long-term investment opportunities in the next three to five years.

Desmond Soon, Asia head of investment management at Western Asset Management, believes that the market's financial drivers have more to do with the underlying monetary and fiscal response and the state of the economy, rather than a short-term negative hit from geopolitical issues.

Freeman Tsang, head of Greater China and Korea in Legg Mason Global Asset Management, however, said the geopolitical tensions would send shivers across the market in the near term, although the opportunities available would still outweigh the risks overall if investors look at the bigger picture.

In his view, political risks are nothing new as 2019 had gone through tensions on a global scale, and global markets still posted some handsome returns.

For this year, Tsang believes that chances are there could be more, instead of less, political risks as any volatility in oil prices would weigh on the economy in the coming year. But, given that it's an election year in the US, coupled with an ultra-low interest-rate environment globally, the optimistic sentiment in the market could be strengthened.

UBS also said in its newly released House View that, barring any major military escalation, the effects on economies and earnings should be minor, as the Switzerland-based bank maintained an overweight position on global equities.

The bank thought that Brent oil prices would be struggling to hold above US$70 per barrel despite the larger risk premium amid heightened US-Iranian tensions, as non-OPEC supply growth by the US and Norway would outpace modest oil demand growth, particularly in the first half of this year.

According to Tsang, not a single market has shown signs of a potential recession. He said the current slowdown is not necessarily a bad thing, as low-interest rates, low inflation, and low growth project signs of optimism for investment markets.

Anderson said the financial sector is also where the balance sheets are relatively "sound and stable" despite regulatory scrutiny against the global financial crisis.

"They do have a lot of cash on their balance sheets," she said, indicating that the financial sector is where she finds opportunities on a macro basis.

But, the potentially upcoming fiscal stimulus in the US election year could put pressure on the US dollar, which is projected to be weaker in 2020.