Experts voice optimism for economic recovery

Economic booms

History points to economies recovering after such health crises.

David Routt, assistant professor of history at the University of Richmond in the US, has extensively researched the plagues of medieval Europe, which were often followed by economic booms.

He said the Black Death, which struck Europe in the late 1340s, also had links to China and had emerged in animal populations.

"The Black Death had profound economic consequences for late medieval Europe. Indeed, it was one of the factors that helped to dissolve the old medieval order and push Europe into early modernity," he said.

"It sped the disintegration of manorialism, the economic system where an unfree peasantry toiled in the fields for their lords. These changes cascaded throughout the medieval economy."

There was also a strong economic recovery following the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003.

Ulrich, who worked in the investment field at the time, said the omens from that outbreak are cause for optimism about the current one.

"If you look at corporate earnings during the time of SARS, you had a lot of downward revisions for about three months after the peak of the outbreak, which were then followed by a fairly quick recovery," she said.

Page-Jarrett, at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said the recovery could be even stronger this time in view of the tough measures China has taken and the improvements in medical technology since the beginning of this century.

"We can expect economic growth to suffer a sharp slowdown in the first three months of the outbreak, as was the case with SARS, followed by a rebound in the following months," she said.

"Given that the Chinese government has taken stricter quarantine measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus than with SARS, we can be optimistic that it can bring the crisis under control in a shorter time. Significant progress has also been made in medicine over the past 18 years."

Stevens, from Standard Bank, said the outbreak remains an unpredictable and rare event, which China has managed to control by taking prompt action.

"Its swift, initial containment to some extent demonstrates China's capacity for fit-for-purpose strategic solutions in times of crisis. Nearly half of China's cities and districts are currently classified as low-risk, and a return to business as usual is apparently imminent," he said.

However, Stevens added that it remains difficult to predict the eventual consequences, adding, "The situation in China and globally remains both fluid and uncertain."