Data suggests that Forest fairy tale is unlikely to be another Clough story

LONDON — Nottingham Forest has a zero percent chance of winning the English title, according to Premier League data partner Opta, but fans of the Midlands club can be forgiven for dreaming of a fairy tale.

A 3-0 victory at Wolverhampton Wanderers on Monday put Nuno Espirito Santo's team on 40 points, level with second-placed Arsenal and six behind title favorite Liverpool.

After 20 games, Forest already has eight more points than it finished up with last season, when it spent virtually the entire campaign embroiled in a relegation dogfight.

It has won six successive league games, conceding no goals in any of the last four, and has earned more points than any other team in the last eight rounds of top-flight fixtures.

Espirito Santo says he is not even looking at the table, but for Forest fans, excitement is building.

Champions League qualification now looks a realistic possibility for a club which, in the golden era of Brian Clough, won the English league title in 1977-78, back-to-back European Cups and four English League Cups, before a long period of decline set in.

It began the season as 80-1 outsider for a top-four finish, but those odds have been slashed to 11-4 by bookmaker William Hill.

And, while the data analysts may dismiss Forest as a title contender, there is recent history of a club from the east Midlands ripping up the script and winning it all.

Leicester City's incredible run to the Premier League crown in 2016 smashed the glass ceiling for the so-called also-rans in England's top flight, and there are striking similarities to what Claudio Ranieri achieved with his intrepid Foxes.

The season before it won the title, Leicester looked destined for relegation, but won six of its last eight games under Nigel Pearson, before he made way for Ranieri.

Forest finished 17th last season after Espirito Santo replaced Steve Cooper, and has enjoyed a similar transformation under a manager who, like Ranieri, has a point to prove.

Ranieri was sacked by Chelsea in 2004, while Espirito Santo lasted only a few months at Tottenham Hotspur in 2021, the suggestion being the Portuguese was out of his depth.

Doubters won over

Many of Forest's squad are also motivated by being discarded — none more so than New Zealand striker Chris Wood, who was deemed not up to scratch for Newcastle United, but who took his league tally for the season to 12 with a goal against Wolves.

Just as when Pearson parted ways with Leicester, some Forest fans were torn when Cooper left the City Ground to be replaced by former Wolves boss Espirito Santo.

But, any doubters have been won over, and the fans have every reason to believe the club is on the cusp of something special.

Of the 70 teams to have 40 points or more from their first 20 games, only four have failed to finish in the top four.

Leicester also had 40 points from 20 and went on to win the title with 81, 10 ahead of second-placed Arsenal.

For context, Forest has Arne Slot's rampant Liverpool to contend with, whereas Leicester took full advantage of all the so-called big clubs fizzling out that season.

"We just have to take it game by game and not get ahead of ourselves. Stay calm and stay humble," Forest midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White said on Monday, echoing the words of his manager.

Should Forest beat Liverpool at home next Tuesday, however, putting a lid on expectations might become impossible.

"If they beat Liverpool, they are in the title race," Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher said.

Reuters