Fragile truce rests on new US administration

After 15 months of fighting that has claimed tens of thousands of lives, a long-awaited ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas came into force on Sunday.

The tranquility of the sky above Gaza and Israel for the first time in more than a year and the arrival of hundreds of lorries in the Palestinian enclave carrying aid have undoubtedly further spurred hopes that an end to the Israel-Hamas conflict is in sight.

But these hopes may be premature. The necessary conditions to realize a permanent end to the hostilities are still not in place. What has been achieved so far is only the beginning of the first phase of a three-phase temporary truce, and the reason why it could happen is primarily due to the power transition in Washington rather than a solution that appeases the animosity between the two conflicting parties.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said recently that Israel retains the right to resume military action against Hamas, with renewed strength and "in new ways", should the ceasefire deal collapse. Israel has held the initiative on the battlefield throughout the conflict, and the Netanyahu government has never changed its goal of eliminating Hamas from Gaza and then turning the strip into an Israel-controlled buffer zone.

Notably, the Israeli leader outlined three "principles" that guided the negotiations for the ceasefire deal with Hamas, which are presumably also the conditions that the US promised Israel it would support in exchange for Tel Aviv's inking of the first phase of the ceasefire deal and cooperation to implement it at least during the critical juncture of the new US president's inauguration.

The three principles are Israel's right to return to war if the negotiations in the second phase, which are due to start on the 16th day after the ceasefire commences, prove a failure; securing the release of a greater number of hostages, although apart from the 33 hostages Hamas agreed to release in the first stage, it remains unknown how many more hostages it holds are still alive; and Israel's continued control over the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border and the security buffer zone surrounding Gaza.

That means Israeli forces' withdrawal from areas in Gaza's Rafah to the Philadelphi Corridor on Sunday does not necessarily represent its moves to honor the terms of the ceasefire deal, according to which, Israeli troops should pull out of all populated areas of Gaza. Instead, Israeli forces are technically preparing for the ceasefire deal to collapse after the first stage, if not for having long-term control of Gaza.

In the first stage of the deal, Hamas has agreed to return 33 hostages in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, with the remaining living hostages to be released in the second phase. Although Hamas wants a complete end to the war before it releases all the hostages, that's something unacceptable to Israel, and the ceasefire deal will automatically collapse the moment Hamas fails to hand over living hostages to move the negotiations forward.

That means if Hamas does not return more living hostages in the second stage, which is very likely as that is the only bargaining chip it has got, Tel Aviv will not have any scruples about realizing its objective by resuming its offensive.

It is also not known whether Israel will agree to pull out of the buffer zone between it and Gaza by a certain date, or whether its presence there will be open-ended, as some Western observers say. Not to mention that the truce can be broken any time if either side makes a reckless move while passing the buck to the other side. Ceasefires between Israel and Hamas which have halted previous wars have eventually broken down because of skirmishes.

So the present ceasefire is fragile. Whether it can move the situation in the direction of a permanent end to the war and then a "two-state solution" depends on whether the new US administration will continue to allow the tail to wag the dog.