Analysts see slower growth for 2025 gold market

China's domestic gold production in 2024 exceeded 377.24 metric tons, up by 2.087 tons from 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.56 percent, according to the latest data from the China Gold Association.

However, gold consumption in the country dropped to 985.31 tons, down 9.58 percent compared to the previous year. Within this total, gold jewelry consumption fell by 24.69 percent to 532.02 tons, while demand for gold bars and coins rose by 24.54 percent to 373.13 tons. Industrial and other uses of gold saw a slight decline of 4.12 percent, totaling 80.16 tons, it said.

Industry analysts believe China's gold market is poised for slower growth this year amid global macroeconomic shifts, after its price experienced a record-breaking year and became the best-performing asset in the country.

Domestic factors such as strong investment momentum — including sizable gold exchange-traded fund inflows and active futures trading — as well as gold's global drivers, all contributed to the performance of Chinese gold prices, said the World Gold Council.

The council believes that after hitting multiple record highs in 2024, gold is set for slower growth this year.

China has been the world's largest gold consumer for over 10 straight years. It has also been the world's largest gold producer for an impressive 15 consecutive years.

In 2024, despite a sluggish gold jewelry market, Chinese gold and jewelry companies adapted by adjusting their production strategies and promoting product innovation, with trends such as traditional and "Chinese style" gold jewelry gaining traction, said the association.

Amid fluctuations in gold prices, the domestic gold market exhibited strong growth, with significant increases in both transaction volume and value, it said.

In 2024, China's large gold conglomerates achieved a total gold output of 71.937 tons from overseas mines, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.14 percent.

According to Zhao Xiangbin, chief strategist at Beijing Gold and Forex Fortune Investment Management, China's gold market will continue to be a key driver of global trends.

The country's gold market remains a barometer for broader economic sentiment, and its future performance will depend on both domestic policy and global macroeconomic developments, he said.

The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, added 44.17 tons to its gold reserves throughout 2024, bringing the total to 2,279.57 tons by year-end, solidifying its position as the world's sixth-largest holder of gold reserves and marking a new historic high.