Mandalay quake exposes hidden seismic risks

On March 28, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck near Mandalay in Myanmar, exposing more than 37.2 million people to violent tremors. Its shockwaves reverberated far beyond Myanmar's borders, extending over 1,000 kilometers to Bangkok.

The disaster revealed a stark truth: seismic risks transcend visible fault lines. There is a need therefore to address three key concerns: the transboundary nature of seismic hazards, the limits of early warning systems and the urgent need for resilient infrastructure.

Why was the Mandalay quake felt in Bangkok? The earthquake along the Sagaing Fault exemplifies the concept of transboundary seismic risk, where geological tele-connections amplify distant events. Bangkok sits atop a deep basin of soft marine clay. Unlike hard rock, which absorbs part of the seismic impact and reduces tremors, soft soil acts like a natural amplifier of seismic waves, making even far-off earthquakes feel intense.

This phenomenon isn't unique to Bangkok. Cities such as Mexico City, built on ancient lakebeds, and Jakarta, with its alluvial plains, are similarly vulnerable to such natural phenomena. Other large Asian cities such as Dhaka, New Delhi, Kuala Lumpur, Kolkata and Singapore are also within reach of active faults with potential to generate quakes powerful enough to produce amplified transboundary tremors.

Globally, earthquakes rank among the deadliest natural hazards, which have claimed more than 727,000 lives in Asia and the Pacific between 1970 and 2024 — equivalent to one life lost every 39 minutes (EM-DAT). As cities expand, often haphazardly, exposure to such risks only grows.

Why is there no early warning for quakes? Unlike floods or cyclones, earthquakes strike without warning due to their sudden, unpredictable nature. Current science cannot forecast when or where they'll occur, leaving us reliant on real-time detection systems. Cutting-edge earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) provide alerts just seconds before the shaking begins. Since the collapse of buildings cause 70-90 percent of quake deaths, even a brief alert can mean the difference between life and death.

In a complex tectonic landscape such as Myanmar's, a dense network of appropriately located ground observation stations is critical. The transboundary nature of this risk highlights the need for global cooperation, and seismic data need to flow freely across borders in commonly shared formats.

In 2009, the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, through the Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness, invested in the Sittwe Ground station as the first step to make visible the unobserved fault lines across Myanmar. The national seismic observation network has since been strengthened with the support of neighboring countries, integrated into international data platforms, and operationalized by the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System.

The effectiveness of an earthquake early warning system also relies on the ability to communicate and act on the alerts. Advances like cell broadcasting, which Thailand has vowed to implement in 2025, make such systems feasible when coupled with inclusive community preparedness awareness initiatives.

Continuing to strengthen the observation networks, improve communications infrastructure and build public awareness requires national and regional investment. In addition to providing catalytic funding to bridge the regional early warning gaps, the ESCAP offers an intergovernmental platform to advance efforts to boost transboundary resilience to earthquakes, areas where national resource disparities hinder progress.

But can we rely on our public infrastructure? The Mandalay earthquake has exposed the troubling truth about the vulnerability of our public infrastructure. According to GIRI, the average annual loss by earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand is $179 million and $137 million, respectively, and as critical infrastructure facilities including universities, hospitals, religious buildings and historic sites collapse, the cost of socioeconomic loss could defy calculations.

Public infrastructure facilities are a public good; they protect the vulnerable — children, the elderly and people with disability — and help post-disaster recovery.

Japan's adherence to rigorous codes and retrofitting programs is an example of best practice. Notwithstanding the constraints faced by lower income countries, there is a need for a prioritization of investments in designing and retrofitting hospitals to withstand earthquakes, schools to shelter students and bridges to keep supply lines open. This is a social and economic imperative.

The Mandalay quake demands our concerted action: to strengthen global seismic data-sharing, fund warning systems, educate communities and (re) build more resilient cities.

Temily Baker is a program management officer, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP; and Sanjay Srivastava is chief of disaster risk reduction, ESCAP.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.