IMF revises up China growth forecast for 2025 on policy support

BEIJING -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2025 to 5 percent year-on-year, up by 0.2 percentage points from its previous estimate in October.

The upgrade followed the conclusion of the IMF's 2025 Article IV Consultation mission to China. An IMF team, led by Mission Chief for China Sonali Jain-Chandra, conducted visits to Beijing and Shanghai from Dec 1 to 10, according to an IMF statement.

The team held constructive discussions with senior officials from the government, the People's Bank of China, private sector representatives, and academics on economic developments, risks, and policy priorities, it said.

"China's economy has shown notable resilience despite facing multiple shocks in recent years," said Jain-Chandra. She noted that the revised outlook partly reflects recent macroeconomic policy stimulus measures.

The team also lifted its China growth projection for 2026 to 4.5 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast.

It recognized China's recent moves to bolster consumption-led growth, including expansionary fiscal policies, monetary easing, and targeted steps to support consumption and the property sector. The statement added that a more forceful policy package would provide additional lift to China's GDP.

China has set an annual growth target of around 5 percent for 2025. In the first three quarters of this year, the economy expanded 5.2 percent year-on-year.