Resilient Chinese economy quells volatility

Mixed performances

In the United States, the world's largest economy, the last round of tariffs came in as its economy started to show signs of a material slowdown, the IMF report said. Investment, for example, has slowed, despite a surge in spending on AI-related and other equipment, and intellectual property.

Since July, jobs reports have been much weaker than expected, with a significant decline in the number of jobs added, the IMF said. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3 percent in August.

Inflation remains a headache for the US — partially originating from the country's tariff policies — and it has taken measures, such as assistance packages for farmers, in an attempt to hold it down.

"Those (prices) have gone up because a lot of those (goods) are imported and there are tariffs on those. Now, this is something which the US government would want to control as they go ahead," said Amitendu Palit, senior research fellow and research lead (trade and economics) at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore.

The European Union economy expanded by 1.6 percent year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, down from 1.7 percent in the previous period, according to Eurostat statistics.

"(European) growth has been lackluster overall this year, primarily driven by the lack of a vibrant technology sector, and the de-industrialization risk in a few key sectors like auto and machinery," said Zhou of Oakcean Capital.

"The reality and bad news is it is unlikely that Europe is able to catch up with growth of the US, because slower growth in the EU is deeply rooted in two somewhat related reasons: over regulation and lack of (major) innovation and tech companies and sectors," Zhou added.

Asian economies saw a mixed performance in terms of GDP growth.

China's economy remained on track despite the US tariff hikes since the start of 2025. GDP growth in the first three quarters was 5.2 percent year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. Its trade surplus, in particular, exceeded $1 trillion to reach $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of the year, the first time it has crossed the $1 trillion threshold.

"China's export sector has remained resilient despite the strong tariff headwinds from the US," KPMG China said in a report. Another major contributor is the country's industrial upgrading following breakthroughs in AI and the government's support for the private sector and technological innovation, which have led to increased high-tech investments, it said.

From 2015 to 2025, the global economy grew by 35 percent. China's contribution to global GDP growth was 31.2 percent, according to research by London-based World Economics.

However, Japan, another major Asian economic powerhouse, saw its GDP growth contract in the July-to-September period, for the first time in six quarters. Preliminary data showed the country's GDP decreased by 0.4 percent in price-adjusted real terms from the previous quarter, marking an annualized contraction of 1.8 percent, according to a calculation based on Cabinet Office statistics.