But unemployment is high in the low-skilled sector, where many jobs have shifted to the mainland. That and an expanding labour force could see the jobless rate rise next year, undermining consumer confidence and spending, economists said.

A weaker pace of exports poses the biggest risk to the economy, though.

Export growth so far this year has slowed down from last year's double-digit annual rates and is likely to slow further next year given signs of a slowdown in the US economy and expectations of a less robust momentum on the mainland's sales abroad, economists said.

Hong Kong's trade is predominantly re-exports to and from the mainland. The poll forecast a US$14.4-billion trade deficit in 2006, widening to a US$14.9-billion deficit in 2007.

Hong Kong's inflation will remain tame, the poll shows. The median forecasts projected the composite consumer price index would rise on average by 2.6 percent in 2007, picking up from a forecast 2.2 percent increase this year.

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