Economist expects continued robust growth in China

HONG KONG - China is expected to deliver growth of above 7 percent this year and next amid a shift of focus on quality of growth rather than quantity, the National Australia Bank (NAB) Group Chief Economist Alan Oster forecast on Tuesday.

"Growth will be still robust but the rapid pace of previous years is over," said Oster in his research report "Global Overview & Australia -- where to now for the multi speed economy" publicized here on Tuesday.

China's focus has been to reduce its credit exposure and reliance on debt and hence risks if a crisis arises, said the economist, who estimates the Chinese economy will expand by 7.25 percent in 2014 and 7 percent in 2015.

"Below 7 percent in 2014 would be seen as unacceptable and trigger policy action," he said.

In his report, Oster says China's credit to GDP has been reigned back via policy on housing and shadow banking, and the government debt to GDP is currently around 50 percent which is not large by global standards with reasonable total leverage ratios.

"What happens in China matters a lot for Asia," he said.

The economist expects above-5-percent growth in India and above- 4-percent growth in Singapore this year and next.

On the currency side, he estimated that the Chinese currency is on course to break the $6 per barrier in 2014.

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