Yuan's depreciation not behind global turmoil, say economists

A clerk counts yuan bills at a bank in Huaibei, East China's Anhui province. [Photo/IC]

If something has to be blamed for the recent global financial markets' sell-off, it should not be China's currency depreciation, said economists.

Stock markets in New York, Tokyo and Europe began seeing turmoil from Aug 20.

Chinese yuan's sudden depreciation, however, happened 10 days earlier than the global markets' fluctuations, and it should not be seen as the blasting fuse, said Ding Zhijie, an assistant to the president of the University of International Business and Economics.

Commodities prices, especially for the oil, tumbled as investors expected a stronger US dollar.

In September the United States' Federal Reserve hinted at hiking the interest rates and return back to normalized monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the monetary easing by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan will fuel dollar's appreciation.

The rate hike expectation pumped capital out from emerging markets and reduced their foreign exchange reserves. Depreciation of Kazakhstan's tenge, Thailand's baht, and Vietnam's dong against the US dollar was faster since the beginning of this year, and it accelerated in the recent two weeks.

Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd, said that the global financial market's turmoil was created by the strengthening US dollar amid the rate rising outlook. Yuan's depreciation should not be the scapegoat.

The more than 3 percent depreciation of yuan against the US dollar was based on a new regime for setting the daily trading reference rate.

The market-oriented regime is a significant reform towards a free-floating exchange rate, and it is also a part of efforts to better reflect global market developments, according to experts.

"A free-used yuan will support the currency to join the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights basket, and the reform was taken before the final review in November," said Shen.