Retreat of globalization a pseudo concept

BEIJING - Commenting on the current annual meetings of the International Monetary Organization (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), economic leaders have expressed worries about the "retreat of globalization" in many parts of the world.

Yet in visionary eyes, the ebb of this round of globalization happens to give way to the rise of a new round of globalization, with newly-emerged economies led by China as an important impetus.

It is generally believed that the latest round of globalization started from the 1980s, and was pushed forward by the development of science and technology, spearheaded by transnational corporations, led by the United States and other advanced economies.

However, after three decades, along with the shifts of world economic powers, the momentum of the old round of globalization is weakening, especially after the 2008 financial crisis.

Generally speaking, the current deglobalization trend mainly shows itself in four aspects.

Firstly, in trade, protectionism is getting increasingly popular. In the past four years, the ratio of global trade volume to the GDP is decreasing, meaning the growth of the world trade volume has been lower than the growth of the economy.

Secondly, in finance, the world has been tightening its grip on financial supervision. The global financial crisis breaking out in 2008 has resulted in major economies speeding up reforms on financial supervision, with many presenting new tougher supervisory regulations.

Thirdly, in mechanism arrangements, the trend of decentralization is getting more obvious. Some regional integration processes have encountered setbacks, with the most famous example being Britain's recent exit from the European Union.

And fourthly, in concept, suspicions about and reflection upon globalization, led by developed countries, have intensified. The IMF, the U.N. Industrial Development Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have all warned that the "low growth trap" had weakened the world's confidence in developed countries.

Analysts point out that the "old globalization" has caused increasingly serious inequality among nations, including developed economies themselves, which is a reason why globalization has been rejected by many at the grassroots level.

However, in the prevailing pessimistic atmosphere surrounding globalization, sensible observers have discovered that a new round of globalization is surfacing, featuring the rise of developing countries led by china.

Globalization researchers believe that this new round of globalization, compared to the former one, has three characteristics.

Firstly, there is a shift of economic powers. After the outbreak of the 2008 global financial crisis, newly-emerged economies and developing countries, with China as the bellwether, have for the first time in history become major contributors to world economic growth.

In 2015, the total economic aggregate of developing markets surpassed that of developed countries. The IMF's Wold Economic Outlook 2016 says:"Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to strengthen slightly in 2016 to 4.2 percent...accounting for over three-quarters of projected world growth this year."

The change of economic power is bound to be reflected on the structure of this round of globalization.

"Globalization is shifting to the emerging economies", Guntram Wolff, a director at the European think tank Bruegel, told Xinhua.

Secondly, newly-emerged economies and developing countries are focusing more on development. China has been actively promoting development and a more "inclusive globalization", which has been echoed and supported by a large number of developing nations.

The United Nations regards China's "Belt-Road" initiative an important supporting pillar to its 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, and expects China to play a bigger role in global development.

The Belt-Road Initiative refers to the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. It brings together countries in Asia, Europe and Africa via overland and maritime networks.

Thirdly, the new round of globalization is to absorb the achievements already made in the former round of globalization. So it's a merger instead of a game changer.

Take the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as an example. An increasing number of international professionals agree that the AIIB is a good supplement to the international economic and financial governance system, and has created new development opportunities.

On the Group of 20 (G20) Hangzhou Summit in September, China and the US, the world's two largest economies, took the lead and formally signed the Paris climate change agreement, showing a good example of a big emerging country and a big developed country joining hands on global affairs.

The curtain of new globalization is opening. It's better to play a role on the stage rather than just being a hesitant bystander.