Gross domestic product is expected to rise by 11 percent in the first half of 2007 and 10.8 percent over the full year, with the consumer price index seen up 3.0 percent in the first half and 2.3 percent for the full year, the research bureau of the People's Bank of China said.

In a report published in the central bank-backed Financial News, the bureau said that Chinese economy is expected to maintain a rapid rate of growth over the rest of the year, but falling exports will slow the pace down slightly.

The bureau said that the central government has used a combination of policies, including reducing or abolishing the export rebate on some products, as well as imposing tariffs on energy-intensive export products.

In addition, the low probability assigned to a US Federal Reserve rate cut and a US economic recovery will push the yuan to appreciate, in turn restraining the growth of exports.

"Export and trade surplus growth will remain high but the growth rate will slow a little in the second half," it said.

However, the growth of imports is expected to accelerate in the second half due to rising fixed-asset investment and yuan appreciation, it added.

The research arm said that the growth of fixed-asset investment will face pressure to accelerate in the second half, while retail sales will also maintain rapid growth.

It forecast overall fixed-asset investment growth of around 24 percent this year, the same as the level in 2006, with nominal retail sales expected to rise by no less that 15 percent.

Based on these factors, the bureau projected GDP to grow 10.9 percent in the second quarter, 10.7 percent in the third quarter and 10.6 percent in the fourth quarter.

The research bureau said inflation pressure will ease in the second half due to stable grain prices, but CPI growth will still stay above 3 percent.

It said CPI growth over the last three quarters of the year is seen at 3. 3 percent, 3.5 percent and 3.2 percent.

Growth in the producer price index (PPI) will remain basically stable in the second half, assuming no sharp fluctuations in the international prices of oil and nonferrous metals, it added.