By Rong Xiandong (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2007-08-10 17:04

The above-mentioned factors, together with other aspects, are expected to boost retail sales by 15.6 percent in the third quarter, 0.2 percentage points higher than the first half.

The first three quarters are expected to see retail sales grow 15.5 percent, the fastest growth since 1997.

China's trade surplus increased substantially in the first half, partly due to the fact that many exporters rushed to ship their goods overseas before the country's tax rebate cuts became effective.

This will not happen in the third quarter, so growth of exports and a favorable trade balance will slow, said experts from the State Information Center, a government think tank.

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While exports are predicted to grow 26.2 percent in the third quarter, 0.9 percentage point lower than in the first half, imports are expected to climb at a rate 0.5 percentage points higher than in the second quarter, bringing US$77.1 billion in trade surplus.

Trade surplus in the first three quarters is estimated at US$189.6 billion, an increase of 72.7 percent or US$79.7 billion over the same period last year.

The CPI, a major gauge of inflation, may rise 4.3 percent in the third quarter from 3.2 percent in the first six months and 4.4 percent in June alone, the NDRC report pointed out.

Strained supply of foods including pork and corn is expected to continue pushing up commodity prices in the third quarter, experts noted.

In the second half of the year, the NDRC will quicken the reform of pricing mechanisms for resources like water, electricity, oil and gas, and as a result the prices of these products will rise. This will also push up the ex-factory prices of industrial products and the CPI, the experts said.

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