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China's export far from full recovery - analysts

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-09-13 20:05

POSITIVE SIGNS

Although August's export figures look still grave, they were showing signs of improvement.

Data from the GAOC showed, exports dropped 23.4 percent in August from a year earlier to $103.7 billion but their value rose 1 percent from July. As of the end of August, the pace of annual falls in exports had slowed for six straight months after a 25.7 percent tumble in February.

The GAOC said exports of labor-intensive products witnessed a slower rate of decline compared with other goods categories.

Exports in several mechanical and electrical producers in southeastern regions are also making a turn for the better. Xiamen Overseas Chinese Electronic Co, one of the country's largest television producers, prepares to add two production lines this year as overseas orders piles up.

"The world's market has been in a rapid progress in unwinding of excess inventories in the first half year. Foreign importers will increase stockpiles, which offers a good chance to Chinese exporters, " said Li Wenpu.

CAUTIOUS JUDGEMENT

Data released August 24 by the World Trade Organization showed, China surpassed Germany in the first half of the year to become the world's largest exporter.

Li elaborated it as a result of "potato rule", which means the customers transfer from high-end products to medium and low level products, thus leads to increase of demand of the latter.

A revival in demand in major Western markets is the decisive factor for a strong rebound in China's export.

According to the US Institute for Supply Management data released on August 31, August Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose for the third month in a row to 50, the highest reading since September 2008. Confidence among US consumers was reported to rise more than forecast in September as the economy showed signs of pulling out.

"It may lay a foundation for a rebound in China's export, but it is unlikely for the country's exporters to see recovery in months to come. Meanwhile, it is also hard for China to resume the export level before the global downturn as western countries may fix their consumption patterns after pulling through the recession," said Li.

PROTECTIONISM OBSTACLES

China has become a major target of trade remedy measures launched by many economic powers since late last year, which posed a big threat to the country's exports.

The US President Barack Obama decided to impose a tariff on tires imported from China on September 11, which will begin with a 35-percent duty the first year and decrease to 30 percent the second year and 25 percent the third year on passenger vehicle and light-truck tires from China.

China's Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said on September 12 that the US decision was grave trade protectionism and sent a wrong signal to the world.

The EU launched anti-dumping investigation on imported Chinese aluminum alloy hub products on August 13, bringing $390 million economic losses to more than 60 Chinese exporters.

Lu Xiankun, a Chinese counselor to the WTO, said trade protectionism has gained upward momentum in the wake of the global economic recession, and has exerted adverse effects on Chinese exporters.

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