Total social financing expected to remain strong

China's headline total social financing is expected to remain strong at around 1.2 trillion yuan ($190 billion) in December, and experts predict the economic recovery will continue into the first half of 2013, Nomura Securities said on Dec 11.

China's headline TSF declined to 1.14 trillion yuan in November from 1.29 trillion yuan in October. However, the decline was mostly driven by lower short-term bill financing, which is not closely related to real economic activity, Nomura Securities said. Excluding short-term bill financing, TSF was 1.2 trillion yuan in November, unchanged from October.

"This data suggest that the monetary policy stance remained loose in November," said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist with Nomura. "However, we do not believe that the current loose policy stance is sustainable throughout 2013. Financial risks in the trust loan sector are mounting,"