Raw materials versus industry

The argument that the BRICS success story is over and all these countries face a similar fate (slowing economies and being overtaken by other, more competitive regions) ignores the fact that these nations have developed along remarkably different trajectories over the past 10 years.

The main difference is between the countries that have produced the resources (mainly Russia, Brazil and South Africa of the BRICS) and those that have used them (China and, to some extent, India). With the slowdown in growth in China and other parts of the world, it is the former countries that will face the stiffest challenge in maintaining growth because of the lack of domestic activity, whereas those that have built up domestic industry face a brighter future.

The lesson from the history of the last century's development provides two prominent examples of success: Japan and South Korea. These two countries followed similar models to China today - attracting significant inward investment, promoting technological upgrades, heavy protectionism of domestic manufacturing and service companies and a relatively closed currency and capital account.