Two-child policy has demographic limits

The new family planning policy allowing all couples to have two children took effect on Jan 1, but the number of newborns this year has been less than expected. The total number of newborns is expected to be just over 17.5 million, which is only 950,000 more than the 16.55 million in 2015, and 630,000 more than the 16.87 million in 2014.

The estimated number of newborns as a result of the new family planning policy accounts for 24 percent of the births in 2016. Given that about 90 million couples are eligible to have a second child, the actual number of second-born children will account for only 1 percent of the newborns in 2016.

The general trend in China is one of a gradual decline in the total fertility rate, and the continuous low birth rate has become a new demographic normal. According to the national sample survey in 2015, which covered 1 percent of China's population, the total fertility rate has declined to as low as 1.05.