US scholar: Strong China not a security threat
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2005-08-26 11:54

However, the scholar stressed that "it is not inevitable that alarger China will be equal to a predominantly threatening China that could lead to a confrontation or conflict" with the United States.

The potentiality of conflict between the United States and China could be averted "through very continuous steady management and engagement by the two sides over a range of the issues that may develop differences about," he said.

Actually, Swaine said, efforts are underway right now by the US and Chinese governments to try to really expand and deepen the dialogue at the senior levels of government to explicitly discuss the areas where they might disagree or agree on strategic questions. "That kind of discussion is essential."

On the US objection to arms sales by some countries to China, Swaine criticized the US blockade as "not logical." "the United States does not have a good metric by which to measure what is or is not acceptable in terms of increased Chinese military capabilities," he said.

On the Taiwan issue, Swaine said it is a "very uncertain" factor in the US-China relationship.

"It could be sustained with relatively tolerable levels of stability for quite some time to come," said Swaine.

But he added that the Taiwan issue, which is closely linked to the development of the Sino-American relationship, could become a critical factor. "If Sino-American relations are very bad, then the ability to maintain the stability of Taiwan could become much more difficult."

Michael E. O'Hanlong, a senior fellow of the Brookings Institution, echoed some of Swaine's views on China's growth.

"As China gets richer, it gets more militarily capable, which is worrisome... Yet it also liberalizes and becomes more integrated into the world community, which is promising," O'Hanlong said in a separate interview with Xinhua.

"The big question for Americans is, which of these trends is stronger, and which will dominate the other. Our strategy overall is to assume the more optimistic outcome, and try to help China develop, which of course is also good for our own standard of living," he said.

"The best bet is to hope engagement and development will make China prosperous, peaceful, and cooperative," O'Hanlong said.

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