China's population not to top 1.6 billion, report
(People's Daily Online)
Updated: 2005-12-28 08:57

China's population growth in recent years has been characterized with a lower growth rate, ahead-of-time peak, and accelerated aging, according to a research report delivered by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

According to experts, China's population is likely to hit a peak between 2025 and 2030, earlier than expected. However, the maximum number will probably be around 1.45 billion, rather than the estimated 1.6 billion.

When China's total population reached 1.3 billion early this year, some predicted that a population peak set in in 2050, with a record number of 1.6 billion. Based on the report, however, the number will not top 1.6 billion according to calculations on various assumptions in line with the fifth national population census in 2000.

China's population peak will arrive ahead of time after China's population growth turns to feature low birth, mortality and natural growth rates, said Zhang Yi, an expert with CASS Institute of Population and Labor Economics, who took part in the research of the population report.

Generally speaking, the earlier the population peak arrives, the smaller it will be, according to the transition rule of developed countries in the world. China is likely to experience a population peak in 2025 and 2030 respectively according to relevant assumptions. It is expected the peak number will be between 1.387 and 1.45 billion, instead of the original estimation of 1.6 billion.

Experts warn that the accelerated aging, the large aged population and aging before becoming rich will bring greater pension pressure on the society and families, which will be unfavorable for the per capita GDP increase. On the contrary, if both the children and aged dependency ratios are comparatively low, a labor population with less burden will possibly boost the socio-economic development.