China's economy may have overtaken France
(Bloomberg.com)
Updated: 2006-01-23 10:43

China probably overtook France as the world's fifth-largest economy in 2005 as a record trade surplus and surging investment drove the fourth straight year of more than 9 percent growth.

Gross domestic product increased 9.8 percent, according to the median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The economy grew 10.1 percent to $2 trillion in 2004. The statistics bureau will report GDP and other economic data for 2005 on Jan. 25 at 10 a.m. in Beijing.

The government is stepping up efforts to increase consumer spending in a nation where per capita incomes are still a 16th of France's, supporting the economy as it curbs runaway investment in steel plants and real estate. That may bolster demand for Ford Motor Co. cars and Nokia Oyj cell phones.

``China's economy will have very strong growth but the model will be different,'' said Jason Jiang, chief executive of Focus Media, China's biggest outdoor advertising company, which counts Nokia and Ford among its clients. ``Chinese people now have greater purchasing power and they are willing to spend because they are more optimistic about the future.''

A nationwide census completed last year revealed millions of previously unaccounted-for companies in service industries such as retailing, real estate and the Internet. The survey led officials to conclude that the economy was $284 billion, or 17 percent, larger than previously thought in 2004.

Driving Force

After the revision, China moved up to sixth place in the economy rankings. The U.S.'s $12 trillion economy stands at No. 1, and Japan's is the second-largest, at $4.7 trillion. Germany and the U.K. are also still ahead of China.

On Jan. 9, the statistics bureau raised its estimate for 2004 GDP growth to 10.1 percent from 9.5 percent to reflect the census findings. The National Development and Reform Commission, the nation's top economic planning agency, on Jan. 5 said the economy likely expanded 9.8 percent in 2005.

China's economy probably expanded 9.5 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The statistics bureau hasn't issued revisions to historical quarterly growth figures.

Growth may cool to as little as 8.5 percent this year as China keeps lending curbs on investment and last year's record $102 billion trade surplus narrows, the agency's research unit said in a report in the official China Securities Journal. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast 9 percent expansion. Japan's government expects GDP growth of 1.9 percent this year.

``China will still be a very important driver'' of global growth, said Stephen King, head of global economic research at HSBC Holdings Plc. ``We've already seen from last year's upward surprises that it has a big impact on energy prices globally, on commodity prices globally. I can't see that changing very much this year.''

Annual growth averaging 9.6 percent over the past 25 years made houses, cars and mobile phones affordable to millions of consumers. China is now the world's largest mobile-phone market, with more than 380 million subscribers, and the fastest-growing major car market for Ford and General Motors Corp. Ford's car sales in China jumped 46 percent last year, it said Jan. 16.

There's still room for growth. Only eight in 1000 Chinese owns a car, according McKinsey & Co. Mobile-phone penetration stood at 29 percent in November. In  Hong Kong, China's special administrative region, there are more cell phone accounts than people.

China's retail sales probably gained 13 percent in 2005 and may maintain that pace this year, the National Development and Reform Commission said Dec. 27. For December alone, retail sales probably rose 12.7 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey.

``You have within China a core of people in the urban areas with significant incomes and you are beginning to see some pick-up in their consumption,'' Steven Dunaway, deputy director of the International Monetary Fund's Asia and Pacific region, said in a telephone interview from Washington.

Still, China had more than 100 million people living in poverty at the end of 2004, more than the population of Germany, and average per capita income ranked 129th in the world at about $1500, behind Egypt and Iran, statistics bureau commissioner Li Deshui said on Dec. 20.

The government abolished agriculture taxes from Jan. 1 this year and is raising thresholds on income tax, increasing minimum wages and civil servants' salaries. Even so, measures adopted so far will likely only provide a temporary boost to consumer spending, said Dunaway of the IMF.

``If the government wants a long-term solution, it has to have a properly functioning financial system to give people access to credit, and increase spending on health, education and pensions,'' he said. ``That could substantially diminish the strong savings motive among households and give them the confidence to increase spending.''