 Delegates at a conference in Dundee have heard how mathematics can determine the fate of a marriage.
Professor James Murray from the University of Washington believes he has formulated a model which can predict the chances of staying with a chosen partner. He claims data from a couple's conversations, converted into algebra, is 94% accurate in determining how long a couple will remain wed. Professor Murray, who creates a graph of their conversations, believes it could eventually be used to predict the likelihood of divorce. He explained that phrases used by a couple in conversation are given a numerical value with the range being from minus four to plus four. So, a reference to a partner "being stupid" would be scored as minus four, but a joke which results in laughter from a partner would be scored as plus two. He said: "For each conversation slot we get a number and over time we get a graph of how they are interacting." Prof Murray explained that the information for the graph is collated when couples, who are planning to get married, are brought into a lab and there conversation is assessed for 15 minutes. He added: "We use a scoring system on their reactions and represent their reactions with algebraic terms. "Against time evolution, we can work out if they are likely to stay together or if they are more likely to divorce. "Maths provides a language for interpreting the human interaction. It quantifies one person's effect on the other, and it is not difficult. "The maths we are using could be done by secondary school pupils with basic algebra. Once they are shown the basic model, they insert their data and make the simple calculation." (Agencies) | 在蘇格蘭鄧迪舉行的一次會議上，與會代表們得知數學家可以測定婚姻的結局。 來自華盛頓大學的詹姆斯·默里教授認為他已經計算出一個公式，可以預測一對伴侶生活在一起的可能性。 他聲稱，從一對夫妻的對話中獲取數據，然后將其轉化成代數形式，就能測定這對夫妻的婚姻可以維持多長時間，準確率達到94％。 默里教授根據他們的對話畫出一幅曲線圖，他相信這條曲線最終可以用來預測這對夫妻離婚的可能性。 他解釋說夫妻對話時使用的詞語都被賦予了一定的數值，范圍從負四到正四。 因而，如果夫妻中有一人提到對方“愚蠢”，得分就為負四，相反，說一個笑話讓對方發笑得分為正二。 他說：“我們從每一段談話得出一個數值，一段時間過后，我們就可以繪制一幅顯示夫妻之間交流情況的圖表。” 默里教授解釋說，根據打算結婚的兩個人在實驗室里的15分鐘談話，他們獲取了繪制圖表的信息。 他補充說：“我們用一個記分系統來給他們的反應打分，并用代數術語來表示他們的反應。 “隨著時間的推移，我們就可以計算出他們可能會待在一起還是更可能會離婚。 “數學提供了一種語言來解釋人與人之間的相互作用，它將一個人對他人的影響量化，這并不困難。” “學過最基本的代數原理的中學生都可以完成我們現在所進行的數學計算工作。只要他們知道了基本模式，然后把數據套入模式，進行簡單的計算就可以了。” （中國日報網站譯） |
Updated: 2003-08-15 01:00
