The Right Time To Attack Taiwan !
yapchongyee  Updated: 2003-11-21 10:43

In a war with Taiwan, I believe the US will not risk war with China.

I have always believed that in any war between China and her province of Taiwan, the USA will not participate as a belligerent on the side of Taiwan. The support that the USA gives to Taiwan is after all an ideological one and very much predicated by the American assessment of their relative strengths and weaknesses. American support has been almost traditional and given at a time when China was weak and the Americans were overwhelmingly stronger than China. It was easy to stare down China in those days; but the position of China today is very different, and the US is not so both qualitatively and quantitatively superior that the US can be too blase about their participation.

I also think that if China is serious about taking Taiwan back, this is the ideal time to do so. An attack on Taiwan will expose the US to fight on multiple front and in their predicament today, the USA is not ready to strike out in Taiwan against a China that is qualitatively ABREST of the USA.

I read an article in www.straitstimes.com.sg today (Friday, 21 003) under the title

"China prepares to take on Taiwan"). I have reproduced a quotation form that article to argue my point.

According to sources, China's top leaders have told the military to ensure that it will win any conflict(in a war with Taiwan), even if there is substantial US intervention on Taiwan's side.

To demonstrate its resolve and capability, Beijing recently ordered a submarine to make a demonstration sail just 40km off the Japanese coast.

The diesel-powered Ming-035 submarine was sent to observe a joint US-Japanese military exercise, said to be the largest since 1996.

A source said the submarine went undetected by US and Japanese forces until it completed its mission and surfaced in broad daylight to hoist the Chinese flag off the Japanese coast, a move clearly designed to send a signal to the US and its allies.

The incident shocked Washington, Tokyo and Taipei. If the Ming-035, a mid-1980s model, could go undetected, then the implications for any US aircraft carrier battle group are grave, as China has far better submarines.

Chinese military thinking holds that the key to winning any conflict over Taiwan lies in neutralising aircraft carrier battle groups that the US may send to Taiwan's rescue.

A source said a further indication of Beijing's resolve in taking on the US if it had to was the type of missiles the two additional brigades sent to Jianxi and Fujian were being equipped with.

These were the XW-41 cruise missiles capable of reaching targets 1,800km away, he said, adding that they were clearly not intended for Taiwan but carrier groups farther afield.

I am a firm believer in improvisation and what the Chinese submarine captain did was good ole improvisation. I remember one incident reported in our newspaper. THe Americans were crowing how their aircraft shadowed and tracked a Chinese submarine to the Chinese vessel's home-base. It was reported that the Chinese lost face in this incident because they were unaware of this tracking. The Americans were obviously boasting of their superiority in technology snd seamanship !

In all ways the reported exploits of the Chinese submarine captain trumped the stunts of the Americans. The Americans depanded on their so called superior technology; that is easy because it is the machine (radar)that tracked the Chinese submarine; but in the case of the Chinese captain's exploits it was pure seamanship and superior intelligence(brain power) alone that beat the American captain. The submarine used by the Chinese captain was an obsolete model. An old Chinese submarine beat a brand spanking new American submarine; SO WHAT IS THERE TO WORRY ABOUT ?

I never knew that China had such capable submariners. This is very encouraging indeed. If China had such talents then what is there to hold China from attacking Taiwan ? This incident serve to caution the USA to be more wary of a direct confrontation with China.

Any war with Taiwan is more likely to be a sea power war. The positioning of China's missiles in its very strategic position opposite Taiwan will also butterise China's advantage. I believe that we could increase our Chinese advantage considerably by picking a serious dispute with the USA on an issue relating to Taiwan. An open and serious dispute with the USA will open new lines of strategic thinking among the enemies of the US in the Muslim world. We do not need to actively court the Muslims but merely to trigger an open dispute and let the Muslims run wild with their imagination.

I think the Muslim world will of their own accord try to fit their attack on American interests to fit the Chinese time table. Now is the time to attack Taiwan ! Just the absolute right time.

The above content represents the view of the author only.

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