Local inflation and global economic woes will drag Hong Kong's economic growth in the second half of this year, a new University of Hong Kong (HKU) study has found.

The APEC Study Center of the HKU estimates third-quarter growth will be 5.3 percent, and it will drop to 4.7 percent in the last quarter.

And the full-year gross domestic product (GDP) will be 5.7 percent, the study says. That's compared with last year's 6.4 percent. Meanwhile, headline inflation is projected to jump to 6 percent by year's end, from the 5.5 percent forecasted growth in the second quarter.

"Hong Kong is still in a growth cycle, as its economy has been plugged into the mainland's economy, which will have a 9 percent growth this year," said Alan Siu, director of the APEC Study Center. "But the major challenge will be the inflation, slowing retail sales, which is what is happening in the US."

Despite the slowing growth in the second half, HKU estimates that Hong Kong's economy grew by 6.1 percent in the second quarter, following the robust 7.1 percent growth in the first quarter.

The projection is being adjusted upward from the 5 percent forecast at the beginning of the year, due to the higher-than-expected export growth, driven by strong demand from the Asian-Pacific region.

The total export of goods is forecasted to have grown by 10.3 percent in the second quarter, and is expected to slow down to 7.8 percent in the third quarter, following an 8.3 percent growth in the first quarter. Meanwhile, private consumption is also estimated to slow down, to 6.5 percent and 5.6 percent in the second and third quarters, respectively.

Facing enormous inflationary pressures, driven mainly by food and oil prices, Siu said that the US is likely to increase the Fed rates at the next interest-rate meeting in August, and the move is expected to be followed by Hong Kong banks.

Siu said oil prices are likely to stay high, between $120 and $160 a barrel, in the short term, given the strong demand from emerging economies. Yet, its impact on Hong Kong's GDP is minimal - just 0.1 percent lower for every $10 increase in the oil price, according to Siu.

Siu said the imported inflation will remain high as the US dollar continues to depreciate against Asian currencies.

But Hong Kong shouldn't abandon the peg system with US currency, he said. What the government can do is to launch some measures wisely.

Meanwhile, corporations should increase productivity to release pressure from rising wages and costs, he added.

(HK Edition 07/04/2008 page2)