The New Power Party (NPP), a political curiosity that emerged during the "Sunflower Student Movement" of 2014, became the third largest party in Taiwan's "legislative yuan" after the Democratic Progress Party (DPP) and Kuomintang (KMT) in the general election last month. Some people insist on calling the NPP the third force in Taiwan politics because its leaders do not belong to either the DPP or KMT, even though the "Sunflower Movement" received generous support from the DPP and the NPP also has the DPP to thank for the five seats it won in the "legislative yuan". In Hong Kong some people not only believe there is a third force in Taiwan politics but also found a similar political force here in those young rising "stars" who came to public attention during the illegal "Occupy Central" movement in 2014 and formed new parties or groups afterwards in preparation for the district council elections last November.

Significant changes have taken place since "Occupy Central" ended in 2014, as both the Democratic Party (DP) and Civic Party (CP) found their ranks divided. Ronny Tong Ka-wah, one of the founding members of the CP, left last year and formed his own group, a political think tank called Path of Democracy. The DP, meanwhile, saw some of its leading members quit over certain critical issues. Led by Wong Sing-chi and Tik Chi-yuen, they formed a new party conveniently named Third Side. These two new groups are dedicated to finding the "third (middle) road" in Hong Kong politics.

Another major change is the emergence of "post-Occupy" new faces known as "umbrella soldiers" because they first rose to prominence during the "Occupy" campaign. This was also referred to as the "umbrella movement", and they won district council seats even though they were not residents in these districts.

But the possibility of finding a third path or middle road in Hong Kong politics is zero. Those seeking the third path are either pursuing a dream or personal gain. The history of the city is such that independent politics does not and cannot exist. Even since the governments of China and Great Britain began negotiating over Hong Kong's future back in the 1980s, Hong Kong politics has always been affected by relations between China and the UK or some other Western power. It has always reflected developments in international politics. Those searching for a third way in Hong Kong politics will end up joining the pro-establishment side or fading out of politics.

For the same reason it is impossible for a third way to exist in Hong Kong politics. By nature the emerging "umbrella soldiers" and opposition "old guards" have much in common. The only difference between them is that the "umbrella soldiers" are more radical than the "old guards". The main opposition parties in Hong Kong are founded on the same ideological basis. Some minor groups, such as the League of Social Democrats (LSD) and People Power (PP), advocate "localism" and "de-sinofication". But the bigger ones have been reluctant to support "de-sinofication" despite agreeing on "localism" - more or less.

The "umbrella soldiers" are known advocates of "localism" and "de-sinofication". Some of them are even openly sympathetic to "Hong Kong independence" and seen as "brothers in arms" with the most extreme of opposition groups like the LSD and PP. However, the LSD and PP are not considered the "third way" because they have no major difference with other opposition parties over political issues. Their main objective is to secure their legislative seats in the Legislative Council (LegCo) elections. The next LegCo elections will take place in September; the LSD and PP find themselves competing against not only other opposition parties but also the "umbrella soldiers" for loyal supporters.

The main opposition parties may have found a harmless competitor in the "umbrella soldiers" set in the district council elections last November. This is why some people suggested they should team up in the upcoming LegCo elections. The main opposition parties are somewhat interested in this idea, but not committed to seeing it through. That is why people should not expect a lot from them.

The reality is that the "umbrella soldiers" do not agree with the "old guards" although they are all in the opposition camp. And they do not agree with the main opposition parties on many matters. Many opposition figures went to Taiwan to observe the elections there last month and they came back pretty excited for different reasons. A few of them agreed the success of the NPP-DPP collaboration should be a model for Hong Kong's opposition camp, but they do not speak for the "umbrella soldiers" or the "old guards".

(HK Edition 02/03/2016 page10)