The traditional energy production and consumption model based on fossil fuel consumes too much energy and creates pollution and is not sustainable and unlikely to help China become a modern society with high income, said Zhang Junkuo, a vice-minister of the Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC), on Oct 19, in a major speech, adding that the country has to change its traditional energy structure and use and form a safe, green, efficient energy system through an energy production and consumption revolution.

Energy security problems cannot be ignored

Zhang said that energy is the basis of a country's industrialization and modernization and that a country cannot have economic, social, or national security if energy security is not guaranteed.

Energy security, according to a conventional definition, means getting sufficient energy at an affordable price. In view of the changes in the current energy security situation, however, some other factors need to be included. The first, concerns whether transportation and the supply chain are safe. Since China depends a lot on foreign energy supplies, it needs to think about the ability to obtain energy through trade. Second, what if the supply gets cut off? Third, what is the impact of energy use on the atmosphere, ecology and environment? If the impact is great, it will affect sustainable economic and social development even if the supply is sufficient.

Total energy consumption in China amounts to 3.75 billion tons of standard coal, now, Zhang explained, and that figure could go to 5.2 billion tons by 2020, and 6 billion by 2030, even if its structural optimization and transformation go smoothly, according to DRC reckoning. This means that total energy consumption is likely to increase 40-60 percent.

If the current energy supply and energy structure remain unchanged, what will happen? In current energy demand and consumption, China's ecology and environment will not be able to bear it. Fossil fuels are the source of major air pollutants, such as PM 2.5, oxynitride and sulfur dioxide. Since China's air pollution and acid rain have already become serious, a terrible situation can be imagined if total energy consumption increases 60 percent. In addition, China now has the largest carbon emissions in the world, so it is under immense pressure internationally. If its consumption structure doesn't change while total consumption doubles, the total carbon emissions will double, and the results are unimaginable.

At the same time, China's dependence on foreign energy supplies will increase dramatically. China has abundant coal reserves but relatively insufficient oil and gas, so an increase in total energy consumption will lead to a considerable rise in foreign oil dependence. China's foreign oil supplies now amount to more than 58 percent and gas, 28 percent. If the consumption remains unchanged and total demand increases, the degree of dependence on foreign oil will go up rapidly, posing serious challenges to China's energy security.

Zhang also said that the traditional energy supply and consumption model doesn't work globally. The population of all the developed countries is about one billion people, which means the traditional industrialization over the past two hundred years since the industrial revolution just enabled at most one billion people to live a life with high-income. What's more, it has brought severe harm to the nature and the ecology. While the current wave of industrialization is involved in more than three billion people, two billion in China and India and one billion in other emerging powers. If they still try to carry out industrialization and modernization in traditional way of development, the ecological and environmental problems will be greater. So, from a global perspective, the traditional energy consumption model is also needed to be changed.

China must have an energy production and consumption revolution

Zhang went on to say that, to ensure energy security, an energy production and consumption revolution must occur, and, "energy security is unlikely to be guaranteed if there is no revolutionary change in production and consumption."

Progress in energy technology is providing opportunities for China to change its energy production and consumption, and the country needs to seize this opportunity. China also needs to pay equal attention to keeping fossil energy low and green and developing non-fossil energy over the long run for a revolution. "As the traditional energy production and consumption model that depends on fossil fuel has brought high consumption and high pollution and is not sustainable, we need to change and reduce our dependence on fossil fuel for a safer, greener, more efficient energy system." Zhang said.

He had other suggestions as well, as follows: First, in the area of supply, China needs to reduce its coal consumption and increase its efficiency. It can also increase the exploration for unconventional gas and its proportion and the proportion of non-fossil fuel consumption. Moreover, it can put more effort into renewable resources, such as hydro-, wind, and photo–electric power. Second, in the area of demand, China needs to cut energy use and increase efficiency in several ways. In production, it could reduce energy consumption through a structural adjustment and increased efficiency. In urban construction, it could build compact ecological cities and encourage green, energy-saving building use and optimal urban energy systems. In traffic and transportation, it could increase energy efficiency. According to DRC calculations, total energy consumption in traffic and elsewhere by 2020 will reach 560 million tons of standard coal, and by 2030, it will be 850 million tons. In the first, this is 1.87 times the 2010 figure, and in the second, 2.85 times. In addition, energy efficiency in traffic and transportation is relatively low, meaning there is huge potential for energy-saving. The country needs to make optimal use of its means of transportation, promote fuel economy, develop alternative fuel sources, and use technology to cut energy consumption. And, last, as far as living is concerned, it could encourage energy-saving and a more frugal way of life, including power-saving and gas-saving. More important, everyone needs to develop healthy consumption concepts and better habits, such as low carbon travel, waste recycling and a healthy, balanced diet, to cut energy consumption through practical action.

Author: Lin Chunxia

Source: China Economic Times, Oct 21, 2014