By Zhang Bingzi& Ge Yanfeng, Research Team on "Strategies for Advancing Health-Wellness-Based Old-age Care", Department of Social Development, DRC

Research Report, No.222, 2019 (Total 5722) 2019-12-13

Abstract: Affected by the inertia of population contraction and the changing trend of fertility and death levels, the aging trend of China's population will be hard to reverse for a long time. As the baby boomers born after the founding of New China are gradually getting old and older, China will enter a stage of rapid population aging. The degree of population aging will not only be far higher than all developing countries, but also higher than many developed countries, causing a heavy burden of elderly care. In the next 10 years, the rapid growth of the elderly population is mainly the junior elderly, and it is the "window period" that must be grasped to establish and improve the aging population response system. After that period, the number and the proportion of senior old people will increase rapidly, as well as the number of disabled and semi-disabled elderly, inducing an increased pressure to be addressed. With the drive of urbanization and population migration, the number of urban elderly will outnumber rural elderly. But due to the outflow of young population, rural areas and areas with the population outflow will face a more serious population aging problem.

Key words: aging population, population forecast, window period