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Size matters
While single-aisle aircraft, such as the Airbus 320 and the Boeing 737, have been the bread and butter for airplane manufacturers, with more of them being sold than any other types, Barron sees a rising demand for wide-bodied aircraft from China.
"For Asia, China in particular, size is going to be important," Barron said.
Continued congestion in hub airports is the major factor that drives up the size of aircraft, Barron said.
"With flight time slots at major airports becoming scarce, you can't always increase the number of flights. The only way is bigger aircraft. We would see the same trends in China," he added.
Another factor is the increasing comfort standards for flying.
"New business-class seats, with lie-flat beds, take up much more space than the old-fashioned S-shaped seats. That means fewer seats in the same floor area," Barron said.
Barron's remarks came after the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) recently sent out a clear message to encourage Chinese airlines to add more wide-bodied jets to their fleets and to explore the international market.
As high-speed trains eat into the lucrative domestic transport market, the increasing number of Chinese traveling overseas is providing fresh opportunities to Chinese airlines, which have been focusing their capacity on the domestic market, Li Jiaxiang, head of the CAAC, said at the China Civil Aviation Development Forum in May.
By the end of last year, of the 1,150 passenger aircraft fleet in China, only 146 are wide-bodied airliners with more than 250 seats, Li said.
Currently some 80 Airbus A330s are in service in China and there are around 40 on order. China has also ordered 10 A350s. The A350, due to enter into service in 2013, is Airbus' answer to the runaway success of Boeing's 787 Dreamliner.
New areas
The total transport turnover of the Chinese aviation industry is expected to grow at an annual rate of 13 percent during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015), according to the CAAC. That rate is slightly lower than that in the previous five-year plan, during which the total transport turnover increased by 15.6 percent annually.
The "conservative" growth target for the coming five years is mainly a result of airspace restrictions and constraint on air traffic management facilities, CAAC officials said.
Currently only 23 percent of the airspace of the Chinese mainland is for civilian use, while in the US the percentage is more than 80 percent. Flight time slots at airports in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are scarce and Beijing Capital International Airport's flight time slots during peak hours have already become saturated. Last year 27.3 percent of flights in China were delayed or canceled due to air traffic control problems, up from 16.8 percent in 2005, CAAC figures show.
Improving the efficiency of airspace usage and air traffic control management by adopting modern technologies will be a key task during the 12th Five-Year Plan, the CAAC said.
That will provide a new opportunity for Airbus to increase its footprint in China, Barron said.
Meanwhile, China's plan to build 56 new airports during the 12th Five-Year Plan, while expanding existing ones, will provide huge opportunities for air traffic management systems and the development of modern navigation procedures. "Airbus will be active in traffic management and navigation procedures in China," Barron said.
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