Still a developing country

China's rapid economic development and its ever-growing international economic and political clout over the past decades have produced many optimistic predictions at home and abroad about its future.

In the latest forecast, the Chinese Academy of Sciences said on Tuesday China will surpass the United States in an all-around way and realize the anticipated "national rejuvenation" by 2049, as long as it adheres to a sound development model.

The National Health Report published by the academy outlines the timetable for achieving this: China's economy will surpass the United States' by 2019 and China will have a higher "international status" than the US by 2049.

For Chinese people who have long dreamed of the "great rejuvenation" of their nation, such a message is indeed heartening. However, the problems that have cropped up in the country's development process should remind us that we should not take it for granted, and the country's economic momentum in the past does not guarantee it will inevitably continue, especially at a time when many factors underlying the past economic boom are running out of steam.

Despite its remarkable economic development over the past decades, China still remains a developing nation and its regional development is still uneven. Becoming the world's second-largest economy has not changed the fact its per capita gross domestic product is well below that of the US.

China is yet to make essential progress in its bid to promote its economic structural adjustment from an economy driven by exports and investment to a consumption-driven one. Without such a transformation, the country is unlikely to maintain its previous development momentum.

China still has a wide gap with the US in terms of productivity, resources utilization efficiency, education, scientific research and innovation. It is also encountering challenges in its bid to remove some institutional obstacles to its sustainable development.

With China's economic progress in the years ahead, new forecasts can be expected. But they should not blind us to the fact that China still has a long way to go to improve the quality of its development, and this will still be the case even if its economic aggregate does surpass the US' in the next few years.

(China Daily 01/10/2013 page8)