Difficult trilateral relations

The third reason is strategic consideration. Ever since the end of the Cold War, Japan has been making efforts to become a "normal country" so that it can build a powerful military. Japan's diplomatic endeavors in recent years also show that it is desperate to become a permanent UN Security Council member, for which it needs the support of other countries, especially its neighbors that once suffered under Japanese invasions.

In an opinion poll conducted by the Japanese Foreign Ministry in six Southeast Asian countries in 2008, 78 percent of the respondents familiar with the workings of the UN Security Council, supported Japan's bid to become a permanent Security Council member. This shows Japan-ASEAN ties have a role to play in enhancing Japan's global status, which is something China cannot overlook.

The competition between China and Japan is fierce, especially in relation to trade with ASEAN member states. China's good-neighborly diplomacy and its highly profitable win-win cooperation with Southeast Asian countries are a cause for concern for Japan. That's why Japan launched the "values diplomacy", as Abe calls it, to contain China.

Also, Japan is actively involved in the development of the Mekong River basin, has increased development aid to, and investment and infrastructure construction in countries in Indochina, and tried every means to get involved in the South China Sea disputes - the latest pretext being China's Air Defense Identification Zone.

Japan's moves could thwart China's efforts to build a harmonious environment in the region. Japan is seeking to maximize its own interests by making use of China's differences with some of its neighbors. But in the long run, Japan's approach will further undermine Sino-Japanese relations and complicate the regional security situation, which is not in line with either Japan's or China's interests.

Nonetheless, ASEAN, which is known for its balanced diplomacy, will not get easily involved in disputes between major powers. Japan may succeed in drawing some Southeast Asian countries, such as the Philippines, to its side but it cannot count on the support of a majority of ASEAN member states or ASEAN as a whole to contain China.

The author is a researcher at the National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 12/13/2013 page9)