Nosedive of Russian rouble rings alarms

Second, the appreciation of US dollar is robust. The Federal Reserve has ended the quantitative easing program, and will raise the interest rate from mid next year. The recovery of the US economy provides a solid base for sharp rise in US dollar’s exchange rate against currencies of the emerging market countries, including Russia.

Third, Russia’s economy has been in a sluggish state for a long time. The most serious problem with Russia’s economy is its overreliance on energy and resource trade, which are the main driving force for economic growth and the major source for government revenue.

Since the Crimea crisis early this year, the NATO members have limited their imports from Russia, and the US government has also increased its interference in the futures market to push down oil prices on purpose, so as to contain Russia.

Fourth, under the expectancy of a falling rouble, international capital started flowing out of Russia in large scales, aggravating the downward pressure for the currency’s decline.

Now the Russian authority needs to strengthen its control on capital accounts. It is still uncertain if the rouble’s fall will stir a new round of financial crisis in Russia and beyond.

China should draw lessons from its partner and slow down the opening up of its capital accounts, and become more prudent in lowering yuan’s interest rate. Chinese central bank will certainly closely follow the situation in Russia.

China actually faces similar challenges featuring the decrease of capitals flowing in and depreciation of yuan, against the bigger backdrop of the slowdown of its macro-economy. The sharp fall of rouble is also bad for the stabilization of yuan, especially the growth of China’s export to Russia. But Chinese enterprises can take this opportunity to increase their import from Russia.

Although China and Russia are strategic partners, China still needs to guard against the spillover effects in financial markets in Russia.