Cautious approach to Trump presidency urged

Donald Trump's presidential victory has created more uncertainty over future international affairs, but a sea change is unlikely in the China-US relationship in the next four years, experts on China-US relations say.

Based on the president-elect's campaign commitments and possible major appointments under his watch, his priority would be to unite both parties to make way for policymaking, said Zhou Wenzhong, a former Chinese ambassador to the US.

Speaking at a Beijing seminar, co-hosted by the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies and the University of Macau on Saturday, Zhou said that gives China time.

"That serves as an opportunity for China to assess Trump's Asia-Pacific policy and make contacts with his administration despite all the uncertainties surrounding his presidency," he said. "But his governing the world's largest economy could also bring about promising changes to the China-US relations, which will remain important as ever."

Trump's experience as a property mogul means that he would do what is in the best interests of his country, rather than sustain a fruitless regional presence, said Yang Jiemian, president emeritus of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.

Yang's comment was echoed by Hao Yufan, a professor with the University of Macau, who believed a Nixon-styled "diplomatic contraction" would be Trump's primary choice.

"Unlike traditional US politicians, he is less motivated to seek re-election when his term is done, hence he will be pragmatic in making foreign policies," said Hao.

On the military front, Trump would refrain from implementing the "re-balancing to Asia-Pacific" strategy championed by his predecessor Barack Obama, but is likely to adopt some of its tactics, said Yao Yunzhu, a senior researcher at the PLA Academy of Military Sciences.

It should be noted that his "America First" credo, which signals the death of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and more haggling over Washington's responsibility to protect its allies, does not mean a full retreat from global affairs, said Hu Weixing, a professor at the University of Hong Kong.

"The US Asia-Pacific military deployment will remain, so would its 'protection of the navigation freedom' in international waters," Hu added. "The Trump administration may stop containing China in the Asia-Pacific area in exchange for Beijing's coordination in major regional affairs. But closing such a deal is not easy and depends on how the two leaders engage with each other."

Leadership diplomacy is worth a try, but frictions are almost inevitable when it comes to steel trade and other issues because Trump's presidency indicates the end of an era of "strong market and weak governments", said Da Wei, director of the Institute of American Studies, at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

"That warrants a new, cautious approach to reassess the China-US relationship," he said.

cuishoufeng@chinadaily.com.cn