Trade deal unlikely as stage set for Trump's visit to India

NEW DELHI－The stage is all set in India for the two-day visit of US President Donald Trump starting Monday.

The 36-hour visit is Trump's first to India as the US president. He visited the South Asian country as a businessman before.

Trump's Air Force One airplane is expected to touch down at the airport in Ahmedabad, a city in the western coastal state of Gujarat, before noon on Monday, and he will depart for Washington on Tuesday evening.

The highlights of Trump's visit are the massive road show to welcome him in Ahmedabad which will culminate in a huge reception by nearly 100,000 Indians, a sunset visit to the world heritage site the "Taj Mahal," and his high-level deliberations and industry meetings in Delhi on Tuesday. The visit assumes significance as it comes in an election year in the United States.

Zorawar Daulet Singh, Adjunct Fellow at the Delhi-based Institute of Chinese Studies, known as the ICS, said that with the US entering a new election cycle, it is unlikely any major outcomes will be possible on trade or regional security issues, "where differences on market access and Afghanistan are still very much on the minds of policymakers".

Though Trump has categorically said that a trade deal was not possible, anticipation remains high in India ahead of his visit.

Considering what has appeared in the Indian media over the past few days in the run-up to the visit, focus remains on trade, defense and Afghanistan.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who has been negotiating with Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, is not a part of Trump's delegation, but US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross will be in New Delhi.

At an event in Las Vegas on Friday, Trump gave mixed messages about prospects for a trade deal with Modi. "We're going to India and we may make a tremendous deal there. Maybe we'll slow it down, we'll do it after the election," he said.

It is anticipated that the Generalized System of Preferences, a reduced tariff system which has been withdrawn by the United States from India, would be among the subjects to be discussed.

Controversial wall

A number of agreements and MoUs, including on counterterrorism, intellectual property rights, space and medical cooperation, are likely to be signed during Trump's visit, official sources said.

But what has attracted the media's attention is a 500-meter long wall that has been erected along the route from Ahmedabad Airport to the stadium to apparently to hide thousands of slums, evoking public criticism. Local government officials claim that the wall was built for "security reasons."

According to US experts, defense deals up to $3 billion are likely to be announced after delegation-level and one-to-one talks between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump conclude on Tuesday.

The United States remains India's second biggest trade partner after China, and has also grown as a big defense partner in the recent past.

The Modi cabinet has already cleared a $2.4 billion deal for 24 military helicopters from the US firm Lockheed Martin.

According to India's Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar, overall bilateral trade increased by over 10 percent per annum over the past two years to reach $142 billion in 2018.

Reuters via Xinhua