Middle East tensions nearing climax

Escalation of tensions risky for all

By Huang Minxing

Middle East powers slide into a conflict of attrition. The flare-up of conflict between the two major powers in the Middle East, Iran and Israel, has triggered continuous mutual attacks. Observations from both sides indicate that the conflict has currently entered a stage of attrition. Leveraging its advantages in air forces, meticulous preparations, and support from its ally, the United States, Tel Aviv has inflicted heavy blows on its regional rival's military installations, nuclear sites, government compounds, as well as energy infrastructure, and has eliminated military heads and nuclear scientists of Iran. In prompt retaliatory strikes, Teheran attacked similar facilities in Israel.

However, constrained by limited territory, a small population, and dependence on arms imports, Israel has been suffering increasing losses as the conflict protracts. While Iran's comparative advantages in these areas are becoming increasingly evident, Tel Aviv is incapable of destroying Iran's underground hidden nuclear sites due to a lack of US military support.

Unless the US joins the battlefield against Iran — a move Washington has so far refrained from, despite pressure from some Republicans — Israel would have difficulty maintaining its attacks on Teheran.

Therefore, the two countries continue their attacks while waging parallel psychological warfare and public opinion campaigns, each setting conditions for a potential ceasefire and showing some openness to third-party mediation. Regardless of how this conflict concludes, it marks the climax of the regional upheaval triggered by the Palestine-Israel conflict and indicates that the regional dynamics in the Middle East might undergo a profound shift.

Huang Minxing, a professor at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, Northwest University. The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.

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