Asian stock prices unlikely to rally much further

A man at a brokerage in Nanjing, Jiangsu province. Chinese shares closed lower on Nov 8, 2013 with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index down 1.09 percent, or 23.27 points, to finish at 2,106.13.[Liu Yifan/for China Daily]

SINGAPORE -- While the Asian equities have turned around following US Federal Reserve's decision in mid-September to delay tapering of monetary stimulus program, analysts believe the prices are unlikely to rise much further given the generally lackluster corporate earnings in the region so far.

Gains in Asian bourses this year so far are modest, with Singapore stock market benchmark up merely 1.1 percent, Malaysia's up about 7 percent, and Indonesia's and South Korea's up 2 percent each. All bourses are still well below mid-year peak. Philippine bourse, for instance, is about 12 percent below its peak in May.

"We are not convinced that Asian markets will rise much further into the yearend," CIMB Research said, citing "the magnitude of recent price gains and proximity to yearend" as factors that might limit the upside for Asian equities.

"We think that the risks through the year-end are skewed towards disappointments rather than positive surprises," wrote the research house. It argued that the boost to Asian markets from Federal Reserve's tapering delay, the determination among policy makers in the region such as those in India and Indonesia to expedite fiscal reforms, together with recent positive growth and export momentum seen in some countries liked China and Singapore, have already largely played out in the stock prices at current level.

Indeed, the slew of positive factors does not mean the threats to performance of Asian stocks have disappeared. CIMB said the region remains vulnerable to external shocks such as higher interest rates, a stronger US dollar and weaker local currencies should the US central bank scale back its monetary stimulus.

Don't miss

China's CSI300 index ends at 2-month low

Profits plummet in Oct for China's brokerage firms

Sinopec parent plans $17.7b stake buyback

New Deutsche ETF taps China's A shares

CSRC head urges improved delisting system

Special Coverage

Everbright Securities fined for insider trading