HK property cooling measures at crossroads

HONG KONG - After viewing flats for three months, Jason, the 27-year-old groom-to-be, has not yet made up mind whether to buy one as his marriage home, on speculation that the housing prices might fall next year.

"I'd like to wait-and-see how prices will go," he said, referring to the slower price increase in 2013.

"It's little surprise that buyers are holding off purchases, because the government has no intention to loose its property tightening measures," said Buggle Lau, chief analyst of Midland Realty, a local real estate agency.

After registering a stunning 20-percent rise in home prices last year, the city saw growth slowed dramatically to 3 percent in 2013 with sales falling to an 18-year low.

"The property measures complicated home sales and accounted for the tepid housing market," Lau said.

In a bid to cool the runaway property prices, the government took a series of measures in February, including doubling stamp duty on properties worth more than HK$2 million ($258,000) and introducing a lower duty on cheaper homes.

Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the territory's de facto central bank, cut the maximum loan-to-value ratio to 40 percent for commercial and industrial spaces and introduced a similar ratio for parking spaces, the latest subject of speculative investment.

The curbs pushed developers and home owners to introduce more incentives to stimulate sales. More recently, developers of big projects have been offering rebates and discounts which, in some cases, have served to lop 20 percent off the price.

A 970-square-foot unit in Tseung Kwan O was priced HK$7.7 million in June, but was sold for HK$6.9 million in early December, representing a price drop of HK$800,000.

As for mainlanders who either study or work in Hong Kong, the city's tightening policies shattered their dreams of owning homes there. Wang qiyuan is one of them. The 20-some woman came from central China's Henan province and has lived in Hong Kong for three years.

"I planned to buy a small unit with my family's savings, but I don't think I can afford it now because of the huge cost of stamp duty," she said.

Wong Leung-sing, research head of Centaline Property Agency, said the cooling measures reduced the number of non-urgent demand buyers such as home upgraders, making them reconsider and consequently, leading to a 40-50 percent fall in transaction volumes this year.

Wong voiced his concerns over the lingering cooling measures, which he said may have an adverse impact on the economy in the long run.

Not a few reports backed his sentiment. Barclays, UBS and Merrill Lynch Bank of America foresee a downturn, with home prices falling 30 percent or more by the end of 2015 on the back of supply increases and stalling income growth.

"The magnitude of the fall is underestimated," wrote Barclays' analysts. "The property market is about to enter its first real downturn since 1998."

However, the government said it is not the right time to scrap these restrictive measures, as otherwise, home prices will be on the upswing again.

"The government should take other steps and be more flexible in regulating the property market, for example, increasing land supply," said Buggle Lau.

Although forecasting a 10-percent drop in home prices in 2014, he said the US economic recovery and China's relatively robust economic growth may also bolster the market.

"If the government can be more flexible and responsive to the economy, Hong Kong will not see another massive property sell-off as it experienced during the Asian financial crisis in 2008," he said.